UCLA Laboratory Research Group
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decision under uncertainty | decision neuroscience | partition dependence | decision dynamics | choice architecture & behavioral policy | strategy, negotiation & organizational behavior
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Lab members:
Craig Fox,
Carsten Erner,
Tom Schonberg Most decisions must be made without knowing in advance what their consequences will be. For instance, the decision to go to court or settle a civil suit must be made without knowing in advance whether the court will decide in one's favor; the decision whether or not to purchase insurance must be made without knowing in advance whether there will be a need for a claim. In decisions under risk, probabilities of consequences are known precisely by the decision maker (as is the case with simple chance gambles); in decisions under uncertainty they are not (as is this case with most other decisions). Our lab is investigating the impact of uncertainty in decision making. Specifically we have a number of projects aimed at understanding the impact of: (1) sampled experience, (2) probabilistic beliefs; (3) risk and ambiguity preferences in governing such choices. Current projects are focused on: (a) modeling relative and absolute likelihood judgment, (b) understanding the differences between description-based decision making and experience-based decision making, and (c) characterizing the intuitive distinction between confidence that a statement is true or an event will occur (epistemic uncertainty) and belief in the propensity with which a particular event will occur (aleatory uncertainty). Papers on the nature of uncertainty Papers on decisions from experience Papers on judgment under uncertainty Papers on risk and ambiguity preferences
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Lab members:
Craig Fox,
Emily Barkley-Levenson,
Tom Schonberg
We have recently begun studies of decision neuroscience. In collaboration with the Poldrack Lab we have been using fMRI to explore how the brain responds to decisions under risk, both in static and dynamic contexts. In addition we have been exploring the role of affect in risky choice, and risk-taking in clinical populations. Papers on decision neuroscience
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Lab members:
Craig Fox,
David Tannenbaum,
David Wolvek When people distribute beliefs, resources, or choices over events, beneficiaries, or consumption options, they tend to be biased toward even allocation over the groups into which possibilities are organized. Thus, judgments and choices vary systematically with the way in which possibilities happen to be grouped, a phenomenon known as "partition dependence." We have found experimental evidence of partition dependence in a variety of substantive domains. In judgment under uncertainty, judged probabilities tend to be biased toward 1/n for each of n events into which the state space is partitioned. In resource allocation decisions, people tend to be biased toward even distribution over the groups into which the set of investments or beneficiaries are partitioned. In consumer choice, people tend to seek variety over the salient categories into which the menu of consumption options is partitioned. In continuing research we are exploring manifestations of partition dependence in capital budgeting decisions and prediction markets. We are also testing the "ignorance prior" model of judgment under uncertainty (a refinement of support theory) and measuring its parameters. |
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Lab members: Emily Barkley-Levenson, Craig Fox, Lehren Mackay, Ming Tsai and Karrie Sio Decisions are not static but unfold over time. In one of our newest area of research we explore how decisions evolve. First, we are exploring the dynamics of indecisiveness: What does it mean to be decisive or impulsive and what factors influence attributions of these traits? How can we characterize and measure individual differences in indecisiveness? How can we influence a person's tendency to decide or dither? Second, we are exploring risk-taking in a dynamic environment: why do clinical measures such as the BART have a better track record predicting naturalistic risk-taking than static behavioral economic measures involving choices among gambles? Can we design better laboratory tasks that capture both the dynamic affective engagement of naturalistic risk-taking with the decomposability of economic measures? Can we better understand the nature of risk preference and how it can be distinguished from related constructs like sensation seeking and impulsivity? |
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Choice Architecture and Behavioral Policy Lab members:
Craig Fox,
David Tannenbaum,
David Wolvek
Insights from behavioral decision theory can be applied to helping "nudge" people to make better decisions without undermining their freedom to choose. This entails setting up "choice architecture" that is conducive to the desired behavior. In a new series of studies funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) we are exploring ways to induce patients to better control their hypertension and reduce the tendency of doctors to inappropriately prescribe antibiotics for upper respiratory infections. |
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Strategy, Negotiation & Organizational Behavior
Lab members:
Craig Fox
Our research is highly interdisciplinary, focusing on judgment and decision processes that are of relevance to a variety of fields including management. Several of our papers address topics that are of special interest to managers, including strategic management, negotiation and conflict resolution, and organizational behavior. |