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DECISION UNDER UNCERTAINTY

NATURE OF UNCERTAINTY

Fox, C.R., Ülkümen, G. and Malle, B.F. On the dual nature of uncertainty: Cues from natural language. Manuscript in preparation, UCLA Anderson School.

Fox, C.R. and Ülkümen, G. (2011). Distinguishing Two Dimensions of Uncertainty. Chapter 1 in Brun, W., Keren, G., Kirkebøen, G. & Montgomery, H. (Eds.). Perspectives on Thinking, Judging, and Decision Making. Oslo: Universitetsforlaget.

DECISIONS FROM EXPERIENCE

Fox, C.R., Long, A, & Hadar, L. Unpacking, attention, and probability weighting in decisions from description vs. experience. Manuscript in preparation, UCLA Anderson School.

Hadar, L. and Fox, C.R. (2009). Information asymmetries in decisions from description versus decisions from experience. Judgment and Decision Making, 4, 317-325.

Fox, C.R. and Hadar, L. (2006). Decisions from experience = sampling error + prospect theory: Reconsidering Hertwig, Barron, Weber & Erev (2004). Judgment and Decision Making, 1, 159-161.

JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Fox, C.R., and Levav, J. The Construction of absolute versus relative belief. Working paper, UCLA Anderson School.

Staats, B.R., Milkman, K.L., and Fox, C.R. Group work planning fallacy: Team size matters more than you think. Second round review, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes.

Bearden, J.N, Wallsten, T.S., and Fox, C.R. (2007). Contrasting stochastic and support theory explanations for subadditivity. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 51, 229-241.

See, K.E., Fox, C.R., and Rottenstreich, Y. (2006). Between ignorance and truth: Partition dependence and learning in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 32, 1385-1402.

Fox, C.R. (2006). The availability heuristic in the classroom: How soliciting more criticism can boost your course ratings. Judgment and Decision Making, 1, 86-90.

Fox, C.R. and Clemen, R.T. (2005). Subjective probability assessment in decision analysis: Partition dependence and bias toward the ignorance prior. Management Science, 51, 1417-1432. (Named Best Paper in Decision Analysis 2005, INFORMS).

Fox, C.R. and Levav, J. (2004). Partition-edit-count: Naïve extensional reasoning in conditional probability judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 133, 626-642.

Sloman, S., Rottenstreich, Y., Wisniewski, E., Hadjichristidis, C., and Fox, C.R. (2004). Typical versus atypical unpacking and superadditive probability judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition, 30, 573-582.

Fox, C.R., and Rottenstreich, Y. (2003). Partition priming in judgment under uncertainty. Psychological Science, 14, 195-200.

Fox, C.R. and Birke, R. (2002). Forecasting trial outcomes: Lawyers assign higher probabilities to scenarios that are described in greater detail. Law and Human Behavior, 26, 159-173.

Fox, C.R., and Levav, J. (2000). Familiarity bias and belief reversal in relative likelihood judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 82, 268-292.

Fox, C.R. (1999). Strength of evidence, judged probability, and choice under uncertainty. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 167-189.

Moore, D.A., Kurtzberg, T., Fox , C.R. and Bazerman, M. (1999). Positive illusions and forecasting errors in mutual fund investment decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2, 95-114.

Fox, C.R., and Irwin, J.R. (1998). The role of context in the communication of uncertain beliefs. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 20, 57-70.

Fox, C.R., B.A. Rogers, and Tversky, A. (1996). Options traders exhibit subadditive decision weights. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 13, 5-17.

Fox, C.R., and Kahneman, D. (1992). Correlations, causes, and heuristics in surveys of life satisfaction, Social Indicators Research, 28, 221-234.

RISK AND AMBIGUITY PREFERENCES

Hadar, L., Sood, S., and Fox, C.R., Subjective knowledge in consumer financial decision making. Revision requested, Journal of Marketing Research.

Morris, M.W., Carranza, E., and Fox, C.R. (2008). Mistaken identity: Activating conservative political identities induces “conservative” financial decisions. Psychological Science, 19, 1154-1160.

Fox, C.R. and See, K.E. (2003). Belief and preference in decision under uncertainty. Chapter in D. Hardman and L. Macchi (Eds.), Thinking: Current Perspectives on Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley).

Fox, C.R., and Weber, M. (2002). Ambiguity aversion, comparative ignorance, and decision context. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 88, 476-498.

Fox, C.R., and Tversky, A. (1998). A Belief-based account of decision under uncertainty. Management Science, 44, 879-895.

Fox, C.R., and Tversky, A. (1995). Ambiguity aversion and comparative ignorance. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 585-603.

Tversky, A., and Fox, C.R. (1995). Weighing risk and uncertainty. Psychological Review, 102, 269-283.

REVIEW PAPER

Fox, C.R. and See, K.E. (2003). Belief and preference in decision under uncertainty. Chapter in D. Hardman and L. Macchi (Eds.), Thinking: Current Perspectives on Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley).

DECISION NEUROSCIENCE

Schonberg, T., Fox, C.R., Stover, E., Cogdon, E., Trepel, C. and Poldrack, R.A. Value calculation in vmPFC during sequential risk-taking: An fMRI investigation of the Balloon Analogue Risk-taking task. Manuscript in preparation, University of Texas at Austin.

Fox, C.R., and Poldrack, R.A. (2008). Prospect theory and the brain. Chapter in Glimcher, P., Camerer, C., Fehr, E. & Poldrack, R. (Eds). Handbook of Neuroeconomics. New York: Elsevier.

Tom, S., Fox, C.R., Trepel, C. and Poldrack, R.A. (2007). The neural basis of loss aversion in decision making under risk. Science, 315, 515-518.

Trepel, C., Fox, C.R., and Poldrack, R.A.. (2005). Prospect theory on the brain? Toward a cognitive neuroscience of decision under risk. Cognitive Brain Research, 23, 34-50.

PARTITION DEPENDENCE

Sonneman, U., Camerer, C., Fox, C.R., and Langer, T., Psychological biases affect economic market prices. Manuscript submitted for publication.

Langer, T., and Fox, C.R. Bias in allocation among risky and uncertain prospects: Partition-dependence, unit-dependence, and procedure-dependence. Working paper, University of Muenster.

Bardolet, D., Fox, C.R. and Lovallo, D. (2011). Corporate capital allocation: A behavioral perspective. Strategic Management Journal, 32, 1465-1483.

Fox, C.R., Ratner, R.K., and Lieb, D. (2005). How subjective grouping of options influences choice and allocation: Diversification bias and the phenomenon of partition dependence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 134, 538-551.

Fox, C.R. and Clemen, R.T. (2005). Subjective probability assessment in decision analysis: Partition dependence and bias toward the ignorance prior. Management Science, 51, 1417-1432. (Named Best Paper in Decision Analysis 2005, INFORMS).

Fox, C.R., Bardolet, D., and Lieb, D. (2005). Partition dependence in decision analysis, managerial decision making, and consumer choice. Chapter in R. Zwick, R. & A. Rapoport (Eds.), Experimental Business Research. Volume III (Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer).

Fox, C.R. and Levav, J. (2004). Partition-edit-count: Naï ve extensional reasoning in conditional probability judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 133, 626-642.

Fox, C.R., and Rottenstreich, Y. (2003). Partition priming in judgment under uncertainty. Psychological Science, 14, 195-200.

DECISION DYNAMICS

DECISIVENESS

Barkley-Levenson, E., & Fox, C.R. (in preparation). The surprising relationship between indecision and impulsivity.

Fox, C.R., et al. (in preparation). Three faces of indecisiveness.

Tsai, M. & Fox, C.R. (in preparation). Attributions of indecisiveness.

DYNAMIC RISK TAKING

Fox, C.R., and Tannenbaum, D. (2011). The elusive search for stable risk preferences. Frontiers of Cognition, 2:298. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2011.00298

Schonberg, T., Fox, C.R., and Poldrack, R.A. (2011). Mind the gap: Bridging economic and naturalistic risk-taking with cognitive neuroscience. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 15, 11-19.

CHOICE ARCHITECTURE & BEHAVIORAL POLICY

Johnson, E.J., Shu, S., Dellaert, B., Fox, C.R., Goldstein, D.G., Hauble, G., Larrick, R., Peters, E., Payne, J., Schkade, D., Wansink, B., and Weber, E. Beyond Nudges: Tools of a Choice Architecture. Revision requested, Marketing Letters.

Rogers, T., Fox, C.R., and Gerber, A.S. (in press). Rethinking why people vote: Voting as dynamic social expression. Chapter to appear in Shafir, E. (Ed.) The Behavioral Foundations of Policy. New York: Russell Sage.

STRATEGY, NEGOTIATION, ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR

Staats, B.R., Milkman, K.L., and Fox, C.R. Group work planning fallacy: Team size matters more than you think. Second round review, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes.

Bardolet, D., Fox, C. R., Lovallo, D. (2011). Corporate Capital Allocation: A Behavioral Perspective. Strategic Management Journal, 32, 1465-1483.

Bardolet, D., Lovallo, D., and Fox, C.R. The relative size effect on internal capital markets. Working paper, Bocconi University.

Powell, T.C., Lovallo, D., and Fox, C.R. (2011). Behavioral strategy. Strategic Management Journal, 32, 1369-1386.

Thompson, L.L., and Fox, C.R. (2001). Negotiation within and between organizations: Levels of analysis. Chapter in M.E. Turner (Ed.), Groups at Work: Advances in Theory and Research (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum).

See, K.E., C. Heath, and Fox, C.R. Motivating individual performance with challenging goals: Is it better to stretch a little or a lot? Working Paper, New York University.

Birke, R., and Fox, C.R. (1999). Psychological principles in negotiating civil settlements. Harvard Negotiation Law Review, 4, 1-57. (Selected as 1999 Professional Article of the Year, Center for Public Resources Institute for Dispute Resolution).